Week of July 21, 2025
Despite President Trump’s public pressure on Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell to lower interest rates, we believe Powell is currently pursuing a prudent and appropriate monetary policy given the economic environment. The June 2025 Consumer Price Index (CPI) reading came in at 2.7%—above the Fed’s long-term target of 2%. While it’s fair to note that Powell was arguably too accommodative in the immediate aftermath of the expansive COVID-era fiscal policies—which helped fuel a period of high single-digit inflation—he appears to be navigating a more balanced path today. Accordingly, we are maintaining our monetary policy Signal at green. In fact, all Signals remained unchanged for the week.
Bob Bilkie, CFA
