Week of March 10, 2025
This past week, the news cycle has centered on Musk‘s DOGE initiatives and the potential crises they might spark. Much of the debate questions whether his cost cutting measures are both legal and necessary. Meanwhile, the ongoing U.S. federal fiscal deficit and debt impasse can be construed as a critical crisis in its own right. A well-known quote from Hemingway’s The Sun Also Rises feels particularly relevant: “How did you go bankrupt? Gradually and then suddenly.” Clearly, it is a stretch to suggest the U.S. could go bankrupt as the dollar serves as the world’s reserve currency and dollars can always be printed, but the storyline holds. While our Sigma Signals remain unchanged, we are closely monitoring the Fiscal Policy Signal.
Bob Bilkie, CFA
