Week of April 20, 2026 At present, oil prices are being driven by Iranian actions, and equity markets are reacting in turn to moves in oil. That dynamic continues to create a volatile back-and-forth in both markets. Given the fragile state of Iran’s economy and the underlying discontent within its population, the longer-term direction appears … Continued

The “Guns or Butter” model is a simple economics concept that describes the tradeoff governments face in spending on national defense or on domestic programs.  The model is meant to highlight the spending constraints faced by governments – they must choose between the two.  For several decades, Europe has chosen butter, relying on America to … Continued

Week of April 13, 2026 The United States—and much of the free world—has driven the past century’s most significant innovation, particularly in technology and biotech, reflecting the strength of open societies. These advances have fueled economic growth and helped dramatically reduce global poverty, as documented by the World Bank. Economic strength underpins military strength—when used … Continued

Today, investors are feeling uneasy about the economy, and some believe that the future looks worse.  It is easy to blame unfair trade practices, AI, and efforts by foreign countries to take advantage of the American consumer.  The easy political responses often seem to be directed toward more regulation, including antitrust, industrial and trade policies.  … Continued

Week of April 6, 2026 While attention is focused on Iran, it’s worth noting that U.S. employment data for March 2026 came in relatively strong, and the broader economy continues to show steady progress. History reminds us that even prolonged conflicts eventually come to an end. When this one does, attention is likely to shift … Continued

Over the last decade we have posted numerous blogs relating to continuing interest in some kind of universal basic income (UBI).  In recent years, more than 150 UBI pilot programs have yielded mixed results.  Now come many leading Silicon Valley entrepreneurs who have promoted schemes to address concerns that AI will displace human workers.  These … Continued

Week of March 30, 2026 While many regional actors quietly support weakening Iran’s military capabilities, an active conflict raises near-term instability across the Middle East. Iran is likely to continue to respond more virulently through proxy groups and asymmetric attacks, increasing the risk of broader regional disruption and energy market volatility. Although the long-term balance … Continued

Imports, as a percentage of the region’s energy needs, have risen from approximately 50% in 1990 to 58-60% currently. During the same period, the costs and risks of importing energy have risen significantly. According to the European Commission’s latest assessment of the region’s competitiveness, businesses in Europe pay twice as much for electricity as they … Continued

Week of March 23, 2026 This week’s Signals maintain a cautious yet balanced outlook. Global equity prices have eased amid the war, but declines remain measured. A material reduction in Iranian military capabilities would support a positive longer-term outlook. Our Signals remain unchanged. Bob Bilkie, CFA

Week of March 16, 2026 President Trump has called for allied nations to deploy warships to the Persian Gulf, a move made feasible by Iran’s current isolation. This practical step suggests the passage will re-open and remain open, reducing long-term geopolitical risk. In the near term, capital markets will remain jittery given regional tensions. Over … Continued

This phrase is generally believed to have originated in the US in the early part of the 20th century.  It is a manifestation of the dilemma of being in the position where one is faced with two equally unwelcome options. One of today’s pressing problems is the increasing gap between the cost of government services … Continued

Week of March 9, 2026 The assassination of Ali Khamenei has created a power vacuum inside Iran’s ruling structure and intensified competition among clerical authorities, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, and opposition forces. Three outcomes appear plausible. Fragmentation: Central authority weakens and Iran splinters into competing factions, disrupting energy flows. Managed disorder: Internal factions compete, but the … Continued