In a recent client conversation, we were discussing how dramatically the various sector weightings in the S&P 500 change over time.  As an example, the Technology Sector currently represents about 35% of the index compared with about 18% fifteen years ago.  Going back to the 80’s energy, basic materials, healthcare, and industrials were among the … Continued

Water is essential to human life and has a long history of shortages and strife.  Water rights in the American West have always been controversial, giving rise to a quote attributed to Mark Twain, “whiskey’s for drinking, water’s for fighting.” One of the most common and successful solutions to water shortages is desalination. On January … Continued

Week of May 25, 2026 We have changed our U.S. Interest Rate Signal to yellow, reflecting the arrival of the “new sheriff in town.” Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, a monetarist in the mold of Paul Volcker, is likely to tolerate somewhat higher interest rates as he works to anchor longer-term inflation expectations. Meanwhile, the ongoing … Continued

Week of May 18, 2026 Recent geopolitical developments appear to have modestly improved the global investment backdrop.  Market sentiment has strengthened following indications of constructive dialogue between President Trump and President Xi Jinping, alongside renewed signals from President Putin suggesting interest in ending the Ukraine conflict.  Equity markets have continued to firm, with investors likely … Continued

There may be an increasing awareness that regulation has gotten out of hand and may be causing more problems than it solves.  There are plenty of regulatory horror stories, and everyone has their favorite.   However, the real damage comes from the accumulated  harm of the enormous number of projects never built, such as the homes … Continued

Week of May 11, 2026 A Warsh/Friedman-style Fed reinforces our Interest Rate and Monetary Policy Signals, which are currently green. A disciplined, minimalist central bank focused on monetary stability, restrained intervention, and market-driven capital allocation should support reduced long-term policy uncertainty, productive investment, improved market efficiency, price stability, and stronger sustainable real output growth over … Continued

Based on media reports, it appears that there is an increasing awareness that renewable energy alone isn’t going to fully meet demand for affordable and reliable electricity.  Anecdotally, a bipartisan coalition of all six New England governors recently concluded that, in order to meet the region’s energy needs, a diverse strategy would have to include … Continued

Week of May 4, 2026 Major U.S. equity indexes pushed to new highs last week, supported by broadly strong corporate earnings that again exceeded expectations.  While results confirmed underlying economic resilience, forward guidance struck a more cautious tone as management teams pointed to uncertainty surrounding the Iran conflict and its potential impact on energy prices … Continued

The Jones Act is part of the Merchant Marine Act of 1920.  It deals with coastwise trade and requires that all goods and passengers transported by water between US ports be carried on vessels that are built in the US, owned by US citizens, and crewed by US citizens.  As a result, natural gas cannot … Continued

Week of April 27, 2026 The capital markets—particularly the S&P 500—suggest that the current Iran conflict is not being viewed as a major risk, as evidenced by the new highs reached on Friday. The United States’ principal adversaries, Russia and China, have thus far acted in a relatively restrained manner. More broadly, Europe appears increasingly … Continued

Week of April 20, 2026 At present, oil prices are being driven by Iranian actions, and equity markets are reacting in turn to moves in oil. That dynamic continues to create a volatile back-and-forth in both markets. Given the fragile state of Iran’s economy and the underlying discontent within its population, the longer-term direction appears … Continued

The “Guns or Butter” model is a simple economics concept that describes the tradeoff governments face in spending on national defense or on domestic programs.  The model is meant to highlight the spending constraints faced by governments – they must choose between the two.  For several decades, Europe has chosen butter, relying on America to … Continued