Week of September 14, 2026 A great deal of “ink” has been spilled by the press over the past week or two regarding the safety of AI models given rapid advancements in the technology and recent cyber incidents. President Trump has an upcoming meeting scheduled with President Xi of China, and this is likely to … Continued

It is probably inevitable that the sorry state of the country’s financial condition will give rise to calls for a Value Added Tax (VAT).  A VAT is a general consumption tax that is collected incrementally on the value added at each stage of production. VATs are very popular with politicians as they are semi-hidden, easy … Continued

Week of September 7, 2026 The US military is orchestrating an economic death watch with the Iranians as they choke off exports and imports. In a similar fashion, Fed chair, Kevin Warsh, is playing the waiting game with US inflation pressures as the specter of an interest rate hike looms. Our Signals remain unchanged. Bob Bilkie, CFA

Western water typically refers to water resources and rights in the Western US, where water management is influenced by the principles of prior appropriation and beneficial use.  This system allocates water based on the timing and purpose of its use, reflecting the region’s unique legal and environmental context. This is not working.  Years of overconsumption … Continued

Week of August 31, 2026 The U.S. is arranging for Venezuelan oil reserves to reach global markets just as Iran remains effectively blockaded from exporting its oil. The combination is significant: the rest of the world gains access to additional supply while Iran is increasingly isolated from the commodity on which its economy depends. This … Continued

According to Wikipedia, “the devil is the details”, is an idiom alluding to a catch or mysterious element hidden in the details; it indicates that something may seem simple, but in fact the details are complicated and likely to cause problems. With the mid-terms in all the news and the presidential election rapidly approaching, it … Continued

Week of August 24, 2026 Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s strategy of issuing more short-term Treasury bills while buying longer-term bonds may provide some temporary downward pressure on long-term rates, but we believe its lasting impact will be limited.  The most powerful way to lower interest rates is to reduce the federal deficit. Large deficits require … Continued

Week of August 17, 2026 Over the long term, capital markets are generally effective at incorporating all relevant information and determining fair asset values.  With the S&P 500 near all-time highs, a largely efficient market suggests that investors should be optimistic about the long-term outlook for equities.  Are corrections inevitable?  Yes.  But after more than … Continued

Wikipedia defines carrying capacity of an ecosystem as the maximum population size of a biological species that can be sustained by that specific environment, given the food, habitat, water, and other resources available. Between 1900 and 2020, Earth’s human population increased from 1.6 billion to 7.8 billion (a 390% increase).  This greatly increased human resource … Continued

Week of August 10, 2026 Last week, Abdul El-Sayed prevailed over Haley Stevens in Michigan’s Democratic senate primary race.  While he is not endorsed by the Democratic Socialists of America, El-Sayed’s policies are supported by socialist lawmakers such as Senator Bernie Sanders. Conceptually, the choice is between “unequal prosperity” and a stronger government role in … Continued

A modern-day version of an old fable updated to include leverage and greed.  Recent media reports outlining the extraordinary success of a young, tech savvy hedge fund manager illustrate what can happen when you get too greedy for extraordinary returns and employ reckless borrowing.  It all begins when Leopold Aschenbrenner, a valedictorian and OpenAI employee, … Continued

Week of August 3, 2026 As we suggested a few weeks ago, we applaud the appointment of Kevin Warsh as Federal Reserve Chair. His refusal to telegraph the future direction of interest rates briefly rattled the stock market, but we believe that is precisely the right approach. Markets should respond to economic fundamentals, not Fed … Continued