Understanding Brexit; Reprise
In light of British Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s move to suspend Parliament for several weeks, it might be helpful for investors to review our blog of 30 Apr 2019; Understanding Brexit.
In Great Britain you can bet on almost anything through authorized bookmakers. Currently, the odds on Brexit happening are now, for the first time, no better than even.
Trying to explain Brexit is almost impossible. Perhaps the most interesting effort comes from Jeff Lafferty, a Scottish comedian. “So the way I understand it is that Parliament have said no to the Prime Minister’s deal, and they’ve said no to no deal, but some of them said yes to no deal but no to the Prime Minister’s deal, but they don’t actually have a deal of their own, which is a big deal because without a deal then no deal is more likely to be the deal that’s dealt, and the people who want the deal can’t be dealing with that.”
Taking note of the above, it would appear that the problem with Brexit is Brexit and it is not doable because it makes no sense.
One might wonder why the British would actually go through with something that has the potential to lower their incomes, make them poorer, lose them jobs, drain investment, and as an afterthought, could lead to the breakup of Britain.
All comments and suggestions are welcome.
Walter J. Kirchberger, CFA