Archive

Oil Prices, Rig Counts and Day Rates

The price of oil has proven to be remarkably difficult to predict.  While the long term outlook is likely to reflect supply and demand, near-term fluctuations have been prone to sharp, often inexplicable price changes. For at least fifty years, conventional wisdom was focused on the eventual depletion of all known reserves and an ensuing […]

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“Those Who Fail To Learn From History Are Doomed To Repeat It”

This quote, attributed to George Santayana, can be applicable to a wide range of human experiences and endeavors.  While it is impossible to list all of them, recent press coverage of China’s air pollution problems represents an interesting example. China’s pollution crisis has been attributed to decades of unrestrained industrialization.  While improving the economic outlook […]

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Brexit, Exit Update

With the resolution of the appropriate, legal path for the implementation of Brexit, the British House of Commons began debating the issue on January 31.  It is currently expected that a final bill will be approved by early March, after which, negotiations with the European Union (EU) can commence.  This process may take some time. […]

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Dow 100,000

Unless the U.S. economy enters into an extended period of negative growth, Dow 100,000 is not a question of whether, but rather, when. The Dow Jones Industrial Average reached 100 in January 1906, 1,000 in November 1972 and 10,000 in March of 1999.  In mathematical terms, growth can be arithmetic, where gains are linear, or […]

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A Super, Super Bowl

The just played Super Bowl may well have been the most exciting in the games 51 year history. The biggest comeback in history! First Super Bowl to go into overtime! Hopefully, the last word on Inflategate. The game also has a useful lesson for investors.  Don’t forget what got you there.  When markets are going against […]

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“What, Me Worry?”

First, thanks to Alfred E. Newman and Mad magazine. The conventional wisdom among economists has generally held that people don’t like uncertainty and the unknowable.  When faced with the prospect of disruption and changes without clear outcomes, they become less confident and more cautious about making big decisions, particularly as they relate to finances. Over […]

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